Monthly Archives: June 2005

Preventing Deflation: Lessons from Japan

Preventing Deflation: Lessons from Japan’s Experience in the 1990s Alan G. Ahearne, et.al. Abstract: This paper examines Japan’s experience in the first half of the 1990s to shed some light on several issues that arise as inflation declines toward zero. … Continue reading

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Turtle System Backtested

An interesting computational experiment: [Link to the original page] Turtle System Hypothetical Performance Initial Captial:   $1,000,000 35 Markets tested:   AD, BO, BP, C, CC, CD, CL, CT, ED, EM, FC, GC, HG, HO, HU, JY, KC, LB, LC, … Continue reading

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Attention, Demographics, and the Stock Market

Attention, Demographics, and the Stock Market Stefano DellaVigna, Joshua M. Pollet NBER Working Paper No. 11211 Issued in March 2005 Abstract Do investors pay enough attention to long-term fundamentals? We consider the case of demographic information. Cohort size fluctuations produce … Continue reading

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Paging through Software Development magazine…

Alexandra Weber Morales writes in her editorial column in Software Development magazine (“Are You Just a Geek?”, July 2005): [A] recent working paper entitled “Geek Mythology“… points out, “About 44% of our sample of female students contextualize their interest in … Continue reading

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The Global Housing Boom

In come the waves Jun 16th 2005 From The Economist print edition The worldwide rise in house prices is the biggest bubble in history. Prepare for the economic pain when it pops

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Ready for Baby-Boomers?

From The Economist (Jun 9, 2005) Ready for baby-boomers? America’s Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation said that companies with underfunded defined-benefit pension plans had filed shortfalls of $353.7 billion in 2004. (Entities that have more than $50m in underfunded liabilities are … Continue reading

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Another Dispatch from the Housing Market

Riding the Boom Grainger David Fortune, May 30, 2005. …In 2001, just 1.6% of all new U.S. motrgages were interest-only. But last year, a stunning 31% were. If there’s any sign that a downturn could get loads of folks in … Continue reading

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Do Bankruptcy Codes Matter?

Do bankruptcy codes matter? A study of defaults in France, Germany, and the UK Sergei A. Davydenko, Julian R. Franks May 1, 2005 Abstract This paper studies how bankruptcy codes and creditors’ rights affect distressed reorganizations in different countries. Using … Continue reading

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Open-Source Models in Economics

From Economist’s View: Open-Source Models in Economics From Wikipedia, which seemed appropriate for this post, a definition and an English lesson: Open source denotes that the origins of a product are publicly accessible in part or in whole. When used … Continue reading

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Some Simple Analytics for a “Hard Landing”

Some Simple Analytics for a “Hard Landing” J. Bradford DeLong April 20, 2005 Let’s start with a situation in which the real exchange rate–the dollar price of foreign currency–is being artificially depressed because of large-scale exchange rate intervention by foreign … Continue reading

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