The “number one” economy

A question from Yahoo! Answers:

Who is going to be no.1 in year 2050? china or usa or india?

No.1 in terms of what? GDP? Probably China (but I have a feeling there won’t be a China in 2050; North and South may part ways at some point). GDP per capita? Depends on where oil prices go. If they stay low, probably Luxembourg, just as it is today. If they stay high, probably Norway.

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